Friday, January 12, 2007

Demographics Rule

In my opinion, something that will determine the political stance of China in the coming decades not only will be the path of its industrial revolution, and its sizable population, but the very pertinent fact of the huge and growing population disparity between men and women:
China will have 30 million more men of marriageable age than women by 2020, making it difficult for them to find wives, according to a national report.

The gender imbalance could lead to social instability, the report by the State Population and Family Planning Commission warned.
By way of example, think of the social instability in Moslem countries, where wealthy men often possess several wives, making the marriage market far more difficult for poorer men. Similarly, years ago I read an article discussing how the economics in Middle Eastern Arab countries - and particularly Gaza and the West Bank - was forcing higher and higher the age at which men married for the first time. In some cases creating very long engagements. In other cases, it heightened large age differentiations in couples, a man in his 40s marrying a girl in her late teens or early 20s.

It's little discussed in the MSM, but it strikes me that this is a societal failure which has silently bolstered the rise of fundamentalism.

Young men at their peak deprived of licit sexual activity abet a militant posture within government.

We'll have to await to see what happens in China, but this has been a disaster in the making for decades. Not to mention the human tragedy of aborting millions upon millions of female fetuses.

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